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" would. Never who you're listening to radio land. Bridge. It from me at WNYC. And."

" And end PR."

" I am Robert Krulwich this."

" Is radio lab the podcast jedi is not here with me right now for a really be really nice reason he yeah. He just had a baby thing is by so. So he's sort of -- that out at his house in so that leaves me here. That's the beginning of my world is not only in my loan program to -- to all of you knew you listeners who keep. Writing in Little League leave things that you think we -- get wrong here in the -- the last show we did the statistics show. And well just happened. We have all our microphones on and everybody was poised and in all of -- this happens."

" Lou. Take yet this is keystroke -- calling oh hey Steve doesn't come. Well you know what I just listening and have to tell you this isn't quite right what you're saying about streaks."

" Wait wait what do you mean I should back in here and explain to you what's going on week he's had in our show that he loves sports. And you watch an athlete or team had a brilliant miraculous off the charts streak of some kind we mentioned the eighty to 83 Philadelphia 76ers. Who. I had an extraordinary. Stuff it's. So so during the playoff. The seven sixers were all incredibly you'll live look in and told this appeared to show that they -- known as miraculous as they theme and in fact. What they did was statistically predictable and not correct it was at all. That can't be or at least percentages are are pretty damning statistics professors counted every single shot not just exciting ones with every -- athlete took -- on that he's excitement -- drops to thirty workers and found that not just somebody will hold great athletes in the end pretty much performed moralists inside their lifetime averages have you hit the -- 60% of the 250% of the time. Yet you may have an exciting moment but when you count it all through. He did but can normally do that so I leaned over it yet it was looking a little it costs -- And I said -- defect this gender you are. -- beat any team that is more like ultimately meaningless and near -- imagine. Oh lead now has a pattern of his case just slipped fifty. Sixty toward tactics on any given night was when you think."

" Kevin always doing -- just having another night. Of these very 6040 life that's just the way it."

" Please even on a shot by shot basis you -- yen each shot seemed to be kind of a random event. Exactly you are you willing to concede the statistically this is the hot yet if it's a counter intuitive it I I -- about what I was just watching being the nice -- pass to Colby. Because he's clearly -- F the and the only exception to this whole whole literature. -- this is. Is is. -- you know is who is the that -- then yeah it is it is a judge to measure is hitting streak where it's reported against and around and got in the book summer actually -- much of history with 56 -- he said yes so a -- to measure is is that the only -- you can find professional sports the only real hero. -- The only -- got Joe."

" So that's where we left to Joe DiMaggio proves that really at the end of the day we are not -- that some people can. Be truly great like something from the Iliad the Odyssey you know and and and do something 56. Times in a row and that could just not. -- hatfill we told you. That's what we told you what that's not what Steve stroke at -- things happened."

" Well as a mathematician I like to run the numbers on these kind of thing tonight once checked with a student of mind him our congressmen weather really was that unlikely for. Someone in the history of baseball have a streak as long as Joe DiMaggio and as it turns -- it's not really that improbable."

" What he mused that the EP you ran an. We explain explain what you mean."

" What we did simulations of the entire history of baseball in the computer 10000 times."

" And here's what Steve did. He took every player in baseball history including the ones who did very very well I QB Bruce senior Ty -- and the ones did -- very --"

" With each player hitting according to their. They're batting average any given season. -- keep doing it 10000 times and compile all the statistics."

" Then if you look. What's the longest streak in the history of baseball. In one of those simulations. Well one out of every six times you'll see. Streak is one mister -- the match goes streak or longer."

" Really. So that means out of 10002. Totally imaginary baseball history's. You mean. 1666. Point 66666. Cases. Somebody produces 56 game hitting streak or longer."

" People used to think was like a million to one shot or something like that it's not that."

" Man suit Tony that Joe DiMaggio too is like some version of of a coin he's like -- six sided -- basically if you roll -- viewers few are ever. A you'll -- that that's the same chances as the -- happening."

" That's right the numbers are about the same as -- just if you win when you get us six. You know -- get a six every time but once a lot of you look at his six about a moment that you would see history as long as --"

" Utility and even even the ones the want last guy standing the last guy the last hero. We kind of take that for me now."

" Well I mean you could take solace in -- that I mean it shouldn't. By all rights have been Joe DiMaggio but it was."

" Ha I'm not trying to make sense that it be he is he assistance to clear predictable yet. Yet. -- high performing nonetheless."

" Yeah he was -- week we know he was a tremendous player had a very high batting average obviously he was fantastic. But he's not usually the one who as the streak -- usually Joe -- someone like -- copper. I'm Napoleon -- Jolie or someone like that I mean. The -- great and there are a lot of great players in the history of baseball but it's kind of surprising that he's the one who holds the record statistically it shouldn't offend him. Also his hero you know we get that. That streak was 1941. In our simulation that was one of the most improbable times for the street and -- Don't away you could say to that -- really truly was remarkable because. By all logic shouldn't have been him and it shouldn't have been when he actually did that so the fact that it was him -- did it in 1941. You know maybe there's something really special."

" I expect that at that but it's well like consolation my little piece of real estate here is streaking -- I'll take it okay you take that consolation. Well we escudos what has -- I can't imagine the baseball fans have been very please with your findings."

" That's right. Yes we got slapped around quite good are her findings were first put."

" Was it just by mathematicians who did you get baseball fanatics."

" Oh absolutely it's baseball fanatics and mathematicians are totally gullible like myself this for one thing a lot of us don't know much about sports. You know these kids that didn't really played good. -- killer would you you're talking to a crowd of -- There were a few other things that. That have come out instead -- you know when you have to do these simulations like you think in terms of slipping a point. Or. Doing what what a statistician think so there's independent offense that is one game doesn't affect the results for the next game. That's also known to not be corrected that was recently shown by. A young baseball expert named Trent my daughter who did a careful statistical check on is one game into -- And of the other games before it confirmed that know their real -- not. And and this is coming all of baseball fans will believe on that. What's happening in -- streak is that players are doing something. -- keep the streak going. They're changing their style they're changing you know which which is built swing at which ones they will let go. And they're trying to keep the streak alive in some way. Such that in fact they end up having longer streaks and they would have otherwise been their and their performance would've suggested statistically."

" And you're saying that that is in fact true that's just sort of."

" Real answer that's really that was only documented in the past few months -- trend and daughter. And so our assumption an art computer experiment that they were -- Wrong. Yeah hey. That now OK that's good for your -- that's good."

" Because if you're saying that the psychology of the hitter."

" Is it is. Is can sway the length of the street will then -- of the -- the whole -- announce he is is. Not quite right anymore."

" It's not quite right that's the true sense now can I start triangle open. I mean you're you're the cry baby B port now and had to be me because this makes my life really bad now I don't know how to do the calculation really. Similarly exist -- problem now -- the games are not independent. One to the next. All our statistical thinking becomes much much more difficult and the real truth as of this phone call is that we don't know what the odds are Joe DiMaggio streak and the one done it hasn't been figured out yet."

" Now it now if we were to take the the the realization you just put forest. It's psychology manners does it matter in hot hands as a whole within the same we -- matters in Joe DiMaggio specific case. I came."

" It's not something I could really say in terms of evidence side my guess is probably doesn't matter what if there is a psychological effect it's been very hard to find it. Are more but in the case of baseball was hitting streaks it's really been clearly documented now. In other -- the players are aware of who they're playing on a given day. And if they've got a streak going they're doing something to make the streak longer than it would have been is that we're just gonna randomized. And teasing out the the role of statistics which is sort of always there and it's rigid and it's hard to escape from it's not everything it's it's a big part of the story but the but there is still room for psychology and for human foibles and."

" Then."

" Oh man you made me so happy right he took me from the depths of depression speak of smooth relations fantastic."

" It --"

" So good reason -- so happy that you really need to know but because beautiful we are not calling that's what he just kind of -- we strongly suggested here. We are creatures that will we are the authors of our own success because we have feelings and the feelings lead. To know if you need to right moving conceived of when prayer. Things can change -- you can change them. I mean listen to Paul Simon's fault how much and and that's our lesson with one unfortunate exception which begins with the word."

" Do we really have control over our choices over our destiny and to read people believe that. Well I want you to join me in pretty little game. -- connection -- this is our reporter Gregory and Warner and Paul clincher and neuroscientist at New York University. --"

" That is a graph paper scissors but their fortresses. They are rock paper scissors and well. When someone plays well this is his balls into the well the rock falls into the well but the paper covers the well it's always -- well. Now then I'm -- always -- paper and you give them a critic of how you shut the well is a little -- made with your hand it kind of look for Iraq but open it. Any she -- connection up. OK you beat me I played well because it that there is no -- stick with a fair that he had. -- mix connection up. When you stand there and -- you do not actually at the instead of making a decision go will -- Less time in the time before in the time before in the statistical likelihood of and if I take the likelihood -- rednecks -- You know you do you stand --"

" The favorite. I think that that. If you experience he consumed randomness in your parental query Danks."

" Those cells juggling on until one of them couldn't randomly jumps up and that's when you."

" To those tickets went cold as a little expand and she showed great -- he takes monkey. With monkey -- seats and gives a monkey choice here you can look at this target to read we can look at this one -- meaningless choice doesn't really matter red and green don't say that's kind of the point. All the while as the monkeys deciding where to look. Always listen to its brain that's in fact the sound you're hearing the sound of individual neurons inside the monkeys from chattering away. It's about to make a decision and this coming up. The sound of an accident site right."

" Each time here that stuttering. That's into the monkey deciding to look at that target. Tim deciding to look straight down."

" When you actually hear the cell firing -- when the humane notices that doesn't sound a little clock. Going tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick tick it -- liked --"

" You can actually hear the randomness. In the way it's behaving. And there's not an accident that."

" We believe the randomness that makes us unpredictable. When we're making choices."

" The."

" One of the things I hear all the time is often for scientists is why would you think there's randomness and frank. That seems crazy. Europe materials scientist -- surely you what you should believe is that everything that brings measurable. And predictable. Well I think the answer to that is. You don't you don't actually want in real life to always be predictable. People have to be unpredictable if they are to survive in the natural world. I actually think that the experience we have of actually choosing. In these hard -- tire choices. Is not the experience. Well he's going to I'm going to he's going to. You can fill this hanging moment. This pregnant -- at both the paperback and the decision is constructed by the randomness in your brain. That's not how it feels to us in effect that's maven who refused to you because when you said all I you were gonna do. Well I never thought you'd do paper third time you're kind of making. I think we make up necessary afterwards I lived that story yeah I think we make it is there reason to elect are trying to I -- to give meaning to my choice is just like you. You know Koch fighting a big favor I think they because I thought you were going to -- well hope to put -- dot. Thank you know is there really compelling evidence that at the moment to head to pick. I was thinking about that in principle. You know better because you look -- the very. Doesn't that immigrants."

" But remember this kind of nasty thing rated it sort of the last thing you can master. And what we're arguing is sometimes it's there."

" And that's that's anathema to their traditional scientific method where will we do is -- and more and more and more and more accurate. And then stuff we don't understand the stuff that's unpredictable won't go away. We're saying -- in --"

" Special thanks to Gregory Warner who I know is dreaming of making the American national action -- team there having the Cree lives in Waco Texas comin' up and I don't of these going to make it grow all our best to -- Warner thanks for the peace. Closely got my two -- just like I can remember anything who also has the bank. A post -- and -- us for bringing us out of the darkness into the right thank you Steve. And it's always nice to see some special about Alfred. And and Chad will be back but you know. Well."

" Thanks for listening to the podcast as always the radio lab podcast is a free service. So please help support it by becoming a member at radio lab dot org just click the support button."