[1:16] ..." give baseball fans a deeper understanding. Of the impact a player like Alex Rodriguez has on the team. It's my pleasure to welcome him to the -- the picture today to explain it all to us"...

[2:47] ..." the people should I should emphasize that what I write about in New York Times article -- work it and sent stuff on public but in the works. Others especially acute older we developed it meant"...

[4:46] ..." and so when you look at this value over replacement player. With Alex Rodriguez what did you find."...

[5:33] ..." look at that then does that justify amount of money spent on Alex Rodriguez. "...

[7:06] ..." if you add of their metric of the possibility of winning a World Series then did. It may be it's that maybe it's in line then. Well no because not included in focus. Topic OK that's"...

[7:22] ..." to a -- like Yankees then but the team I follow the Baltimore Orioles. And that's because you know -- oil got Alex Rodriguez and one let's say. 75 games -- seventy games for the content with that much extra money for that cannot put the playoffs anyway. West -- the Yankees. Winning and fighting instead of ninety for the very real chance of making the difference between. Finishing the -- at the beginning of October we're going on to play the World Series. And that's why winds -- worth much more. To a good team -- about it."...

[13:47] ..." who you think will be most likely to make it two the World Series in the fall."...

[0:00]" Hi this is Leonard -- you're listening to WNYC on demand. Podcasts streaming and MP3 downloads available when you want to listen at WNYC dot org and iTunes."

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[0:29]" You're listening to the Leonard -- show on and makes ninety and 93 point nine got behind eyes."

[0:38]" I'm Julie pristine here for Leonard Lopate today. In baseball statistics are everything. While RBIs ER -- home runs and batting averages are often cited to determine a baseball player's worth among casual fans. A different method has been developed among serious -- petitions. In his article the algebra of A-Rod. Jordan Alan berg attempts to mathematically proved that he -- contribution to the Yankees overall success. Is not as critical as has historically unprecedented salary might suggest. A mathematician at the University of Wisconsin Jordan uses algebra and calculus to give baseball fans a deeper understanding. Of the impact a player like Alex Rodriguez has on the team. It's my pleasure to welcome him to the -- the picture today to explain it all to us welcome. At the top view your article use a term I was not familiar with which is Seagram attrition can you explain that."

[1:37]" that they were met with kinda. Novelty wear that -- going to meet at Akron and at they'd be art society for American expert research. To be the guys who are not alone probably at least thirty years have been kind as -- from bringing more sophisticated mathematical methods that study of people for a long time. They were doing that in relative obscurity many in recent years I think. The tide has turned and now it's become. Almost a given that any sort of serious. Its operation and most serious offense on think about being brought to stick and went that would call diplomatic developed by about it."

[2:19]" Now you say these guys so you're not one of these kinds."

[2:22]" I am I am not a -- attrition. I would say work but -- what did Thomas say it's a decent. Well I think. -- window yet and -- you can get to know lot about it's gotten a lot about baseball -- really deep and wide. -- come to just let them petitions knowledge. Pan down. And they -- an accent from the people should I should emphasize that what I write about in New York Times article -- work it and sent stuff on public but in the works. Others especially acute older we developed it meant that meant to measure called value over replacement let it. Player Anna and ability sort of a great team that symmetric. Iran -- figure out how you can protect -- team how many entity that win it but how many Wednesday."

[3:14]" No you said the value over replacement players or worked as a sounding in your article. What what does that this crime. Yes but it feels like we're in some sort of Star Trek."

[3:31]" And so what if this idea is that when you figure out how much. Valuable player I think your team player player hit fifty home runs quite a lot on the you have to consider. What production would be getting that player weren't there so how accurate the -- It's more valuable than a first baseman hit fifty a month -- I think of Ron. It's for the pin number of volunteer Kenya should think it's -- the same value but it's not true because if that first baseman. With the Spybot needed in the first basement you'll probably be able to find one who could let that hit one home run. But it suddenly needed to find new catcher catcher -- rarest species the baseball player and you might only be able to find one it was going to -- moments for. And so the value over replacement players sort of saying how much more production is about to -- giving you. And the player who would you play for your team if you didn't have ballots."

[4:32]" And you could spend 275 million dollars to get somebody to play for your team."

[4:37]" Exactly it's one reason that what counts -- replacement player for the Yankees. -- different from what -- that the replacement player for the double race."

[4:45]" That's interest and so when you look at this value over replacement player. With Alex Rodriguez what did you find."

[4:54]" Well what I found first of all is that I think by most measures should forget about the -- Deserves his about it says one of the -- probably -- asked if there isn't mutually spot so. It depends a lot but they're certainly paying for the -- Armed what you find when you worked in numbers is that he has probably helping the Yankees win at out. Five or six games more per year than they would be if they didn't about a yet."

[5:24]" And they had that replacement player I -- players and so is bad enough. In your calculations mean when you look at that then does that justify amount of money spent on Alex Rodriguez. "

[5:40]" That's -- really fantastic. -- because after -- justified it's partly a mathematical and partly a moral questions."

[5:46]" And -- and partly a kind of market question and and you know sometimes -- look at these vast amounts of money and think part of it is you're just generating huge amount of publicity just by that number quickly settled --"

[5:58]" Well that's right there with the with the feedback effect. And that way you can ask yourself what a mathematician can tell -- it how many wins. Are you getting back from work together for your money but it with a trip -- the bad you want to know how much money. Are you getting back for your money fortunately there's another paper the person people over -- been very network essentially estimating what's the value of a win. Then and what you worked out is that for a team like the Yankees what they're worth about four million dollars each. -- security we get is gonna when you find work in the air. Or maybe five or six major talking about that value to be -- monetarily. Of twenty to 25 million a year about the in the range of what it contract is what you do have to remember that the Yankees go to Luxor attack. That they actually I think out -- now 43 million a year certainly -- but to take that into account so I would say that -- not what do you. His salary is perhaps somewhat more than -- getting back and money but it's not outrageously out of."

[7:06]" And then if you add of their metric of the possibility of winning a World Series then did. It may be it's that maybe it's in line then. Well no because not included in focus. Topic OK that's included an -- four million dollars."

[7:21]" Are worth much more to a -- like Yankees then but the team I follow the Baltimore Orioles. And that's because you know -- oil got Alex Rodriguez and one let's say. 75 games -- seventy games for the content with that much extra money for that cannot put the playoffs anyway. West -- the Yankees. Winning and fighting instead of ninety for the very real chance of making the difference between. Finishing the -- at the beginning of October we're going on to play the World Series. And that's why winds -- worth much more. To a good team -- about it."

[7:56]" I'm speaking with Jordan Ellen berg who is a mathematician at the University of Wisconsin who has an article called the algebra of A -- Which looks at how we you can calculate the various worth of various players in various ways. I want to ask you during what kind of math do you teach at the University of Wisconsin is baseball partisan."

[8:18]" I'm afraid I don't get to -- spotlight I'm the number spirit those problems but I think about are much. But they I mean these people problems involve numbers -- At a professional number -- we think about numbers and a rather different way than just adding them up and multiply them buy things with it. What you do government."

[8:37]" So how did you come to -- metrics are you also a huge baseball fan."

[8:41]" Oh yeah I started I mean a perfect vehicle and the editorial that and I started I was the kid on the reading the book to Bill -- rights think now works for the red dot. And I think that sort of the pioneering figure when no one else was doing it as saying. Let's bring a little bit of mathematical justification. To thinking about the game of baseball so I think. Almost everybody now -- seriously up baseball statistics and about my 87 armed -- to thirty. Grew up reading ability it is property and you wouldn't wait. You go to the bookstore every day before it didn't start it -- come out movie and you feed on itself and accurately read it take on the previous years."

[9:22]" No we were you a kid who. Loved mathematics even before you encountered build James -- was this part of what what led you down the path of of being coming in numbers theorist."

[9:33]" I actually prefer meat and mathematics came first actually look like math -- took it took it -- my first baseball game. Smart now Macedonia they thought about it and he. Other way around."

[9:45]" And baseball rather than other games -- and this I may be completely wrong but it seems like baseball is concerned with these metrics and these numbers. In a much different way than other sports night."

[9:57]" That's right it has to be and the reason for that is that baseball much easier to break down to individual bat. It yet every moment that the kind of I'm very competition taking place in the picture about a resident adding up like how good running back isn't football. But the fact -- at running back breaks free and make a fifty yard touchdown run when you can -- to -- with the great running back. But you -- what percentage that is due to the offensive line opening up the big hole -- back I. To run through. There's at least in all eleven players at the now involved in every play the with extremely difficult and a game like football or basketball. To assign value to individual players the way candidates -- not the people don't try to work I -- that I would they were at the dawn of really serious favored metric style thinking about some of these more you know oriented sports like football and basketball make you wear it like where baseball and like 2030 years ago."

[10:52]" Well I was going to ask you whether these kinds of calculations are being applied to other sports."

[10:59]" Oh yeah that they are I mean these sort of know. We have some rough fight yet for instance. If you this many touchdown to how to test underscore how it back and effective way to -- the armed but it -- much more primitive."

[11:18]" No you said bill James you think works for of the Red Sox do teens. Employees -- magicians but as they're looking at there. Their possible choices for people to place on their teams and and having people doing this kind of calculus to say well it is it 275 million or should we say to fifty."

[11:38]" What they do now they didn't they aren't but now we're in the kind of -- metrics in the -- felt. Are starting to are starting to catch on but the fact is that really supplement an art that so I I couldn't tell you what proportionate means how someone who would describe -- that -- arbitration. -- other stuff but it certainly more than and plug it into a big. -- activated at the very good book by Michael Lewis called money ball. Here because I know about which really kind of bomb talked about how to open days were using paper metric idea. Which no one else was doing a great but the consistently -- very good teams despite not I think I'd have my appetite like the key to the -- the red -- And I think apple with a cute but the lord really kind of opened people lied to the fact that this was not kind of pie in the sky academic -- I think it's an and it actually translate into wins the field and dollars to back I get people buy it."

[12:32]" has -- because of a crazy question but with all of the scandals about steroid use has anybody tried to use -- metrics to analyze the players. The various years and think is this person using or not."

[12:44]" Both for sure I mean I think that is very hard thing to do. Armed and it that you can get sort of good guesses not includes Baptist but they're on the put that'll happen. I will be developing the -- saints and that is that but -- at the Wharton school. He and -- cooperative afraid that -- debate and detonate -- brought a nice article about Roger Clemens when he was in the news com. Analyzing his his record and tried to figure out whether they're at a hallmark says security there but because we don't actually know that incident that -- don't know. Medically about the effects as steroids select how they're likely to affect. Someone's physical capability let alone the public must know how they affect performance in the baseball field right thing I think of course people ride I think -- conclude that it would be very."

[13:36]" Where at the very beginning of on baseball season as my last question have you looked at what's going on various teams and with. A Saber electricians approached looked at to see who you think will be most likely to make it two the World Series in the fall."

[13:53]" today I'm mostly look at the Orioles from their personnel that you got that -- like can't quite start crying about it. And then that sort of the do my appetite look at other but it. I think right now I think -- oil the projected by most of the metric system to be the worst team all of baseball. And moved here does."

[14:14]" Does it make you want to just hang up your Saber metrics hat though when you see that."

[14:18]" That's when I'm not tonight -- copy them out doesn't have all the answers."

[14:24]" my guest has been. Jordan Alan berg who teaches math at the University of Wisconsin and who has written a book called a book I'm sorry an article. The algebra as a around memo to hank and -- any genius to figure out why Rodriguez hasn't won the Yankees a title yet thank you so much for being on the Leonard -- show thank."

[14:55]" Thanks for listening to WNYC on demand. Please check out the other programs at WNYC dot -- or on iTunes this is a free service made available by our listeners. Become a member of WNYC today"